On 11/06/11 11:49, Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 11, 11:42 am, Adam wrote:
On 11/06/11 09:00, Gavino wrote:

"Will wrote in message
...
OK I'm conceeding that it is highly likely that I will be totally wrong
about my indications for a hot and dry June

Kudos for admitting failure.
But the real lesson is that anyone who predicts the weather several weeks
ahead is never 'right' or 'wrong', merely 'lucky' or 'unlucky'.

If someone wins the football pools, no-one would think to praise him for
being a great forecaster.
Why should (long-range) weather forecasting be any different?

Because seasonal forecasting is conducted using physical/dynamical
relationships within the atmosphere, not guesswork. It is possible for
some seaonal forecasts to show skill when assessed over many forecasts.

Where Adam. Gavono's assessment is harsh and harsher than my view. I
feel that SSTs may provide a means of forecasting seasonally in the
future. They are already used by the MetO to predict the winter sign
of the NAO with reasonable hindsight accuracy, but that does not
predict our winter weather pattern well, unfortunately.

As I've asked many others, if you feel there is success in using
dynamics for long-term (seasonal) forecastuing then the research to
show that must exist. Simply show it to us, or you are just repeating
percieved wisdom - which I feel is not correct, as I have not seen the
research evidence. if you can show me it, I'll happily revise my
thinking. If it's not there; you and others must really revise yours.
*))

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/doc...esetal2004.pdf
http://climate.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/Q...unders2003.pdf
http://climate.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/Q...unders2003.pdf
http://climate.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/J...unders2008.pdf
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/GlobalRe2004.pdf

using the criteria that "skill" means doing better than climatology over
the long term.