your variable is a crock of ****

On 11/06/2011 6:09 PM, Dawlish wrote:
- Show quoted text -

Sorry Adam, forgot to say. When I "forecast" winters in the UK I only
use one variable; temperature. (rainfall, snowfall, storminess etc is
impossible, IMO). I've been right about 75%+ of the time since 1990
and I have forecasted "warmer than the long-term average" every year.
No flannel; I just use two things. Climatology, married to a UK
warming trend. Show me another forecaster that has that kind of level
of accuracy. *)) (notice the smiley)

Winter 2011-12 - warmer than average. You heard it here first! Easy
eh? *))