On Jul 4, 3:16*pm, Seany McD wrote:
On Jul 4, 2:36*pm, Dawlish wrote:





http://www.climate-uk.com/monthly/1106.htm

How did all those forecasters and agencies miss this? I haven't seen a
single attempt at an explanation, on here, or in the press, of why any
of them were so hoplessly incorrect about the first month of this
summer.

The only reason I can come up with for them saying that June (and I
know the summer has 2 months to run, was going to be warm and dry was
that when they put their forecasts together, it was warm and dry in
their back garden and on the charts out to 16 days.

I have a sneaky suspicion that model output guides the first part of
most of these forecasts and the rest, past 16 days is determined by
nothing more than continued persistence from what is shown in the
models and then pure guesswork as to when the pattern may, or may not
change. The fact that no individual, or agency can demonstrate any
reasonable success and the MetO have abandoned public inquests into
their seasonal forecasts by stopping their issue, would support that
assertion. Is that assessment of the current state of seasonal
forecasting wrong?

So you are "guessing" that they are "guessing" !- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Errr, No. I am saying that none of the forecasters, or agencies can
provide evidence of good seasonal forecasting success over time and
I'm speculating on the possible reasons why. If my speculation is
wrong - and it may well be - I've asked for comments as to why. If you
have any, I'd be interested to know why you think these forecasts for
the first month of the summer were so spectacularly wrong, given the
outcome of Phil's assessment of the month being "rather cool and
changeable".