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Old August 19th 11, 11:38 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Nick[_3_] Nick[_3_] is offline
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Default What is an "average" summer?

On Aug 18, 10:15*am, "Col" wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message

...



In article
,
Nick writes:
Looking at the models, which seem to indicate no further spells of
settled weather before the end of the month and a risk of some very
poor days next week, it looks like high summer (July, August) 2011
will be yet another poor one, the fifth on the trot, and summer 2011
the third in the last five I would perceive as below-average (though
summer overall in 2009 and 2010 was "saved", if you will, by June).


However looking at longer term weather records, e.g. Trevor Harley's,
it seems that the recent run of average-to-good summers from 1989 to
2006 was perhaps the aberration and a summer like 2011 is closer to
the average than one thinks.

snip


My memories of some pretty dire summers in the 1960s suggest that back
then this summer would have been viewed as average, or perhaps even a
little above. And the 1950s, which I was too young to remember clearly,
may have been even worse, at least as regards rainfall amounts (with the
notable exception of 1959 - which I /do/ remember - and to a lesser
extent 1955).


Even the 1970s and 1980s, which the exceptions of 1975 and 1976, for the
most part were little if any better.


Indeed, although 1983 was a very good summer.


1984 was also good, and ISTR 1982 also being fairly good as well,
though with a not-so-good June (at least in SW Scotland where I was on
holiday for 2 weeks, can't remember the rest of it). 1981 too had a
very good August in the south, though 1985-88 were consistently poor,
very reminiscent of the current spell.

Nick