On Aug 23, 10:09*am, "Tony Kenyon"
wrote:
"Tudor Hughes" *wrote in message

...

On Aug 23, 12:38 am, Lawrence13 wrote:



On Aug 22, 11:55 pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:

Lawrence13 wrote:
When You Weather Warn With MetO Woebegone.

Yes for two days now big yellow weather warning over the South of
England then I guess it was abducted by Aliens you know those ones
that are concerned with AGW.

More UKMO melodramatic tripe and let's face it when it comes to OTT
forecasts AGWUKMO really know their onions. *Maybe tomorrows big
yellow blob may yet be justified , but really it is pathetic.
scaremongering in the vein of 'elf & safety codswallop, no wonder
England's going to hell in a legally maintained and serviced hand
cart.

--------------------
The 11.30pm radar rain band seems to have taken a leap to the East and
thinned. I hope it's not going to do a channel skimmer like Channel Low
snow threats!
Dave

The funny thing is Dave when these grim warnings go out all of us
weather nuts shout whoopee, we don't cower in fear, so it goes without
saying that most of us are looking forward to Crash Bang and Wallop
and are not dismayed. *I understand that a forecast can go wrong; I
have no problem with that. However when stupid *'weather warnings go
out that always tend to be wrong- well UKMO have only their selves to
blame when they get some stick. The times this has happened, when the
severe *weather public information *doom laden tosh fizzles out faster
than a pound shop firework.

I really wish I'd keep some kind of record over the years of outcomes
compared to predictions, sadly it seems we live in an age where no
seems to care if its all fantasy , it's all quickly
forgotten.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

* * * * * *How do you know it's going to go wrong and that we won't
get much rain? *Your entire posting, and your earlier one, is
predicated on this basis. *If the forecast does go wrong there may
well be cause for criticism of the forecast, but not the warning,
because I have just heard (R4, 0030) that some places may get 50 mm
"in a very short time" (Philip Avery, in fairly measured tones). *If
that isn't worth a warning, nothing is. *Why not wait until tomorrow
afternoon and see what has actually happened? *My own hunch is that we
will not get that much - it will just miss us to the east but I have
little confidence in that judgement so I'm not shouting the odds. *Why
are you? *You give yourself away so easily.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey (no rain yet).

I'm with you Lawrence. *Last Thursday was a classic example of the absurdity
of it all. I had a busy weekend coming up with a game of cricket on the
Friday, a wedding on the Saturday and a game of golf on the Sunday, all in
East Anglia. *Whilst we endured one of the worst August days I can remember
in Hampshire with very low temperatures and rain amounts exceeding 50mm in
places there was not one warning on the Met Office website until the event
had practically ceased.

Meanwhile the dire warnings of heavy rain for the Sunday and Monday in East
Anglia remained in place day after day until that event, like last night's
and this morning's simply failed to materialise!

I have said before that I fully understand that forecasts can go wrong but
with these warnings my perception is that they are wrong (or perhaps
exaggerated) more often than they are right.

It also begs the question do we need to be warned about rain?

Tony

Is it not better to warn people about it "just in case" it happens?
The current event *could* have developed into something like last
Thursday but didn't. I wasn't here but it sounds like Thursday was an
extreme event, it wasn't "just rain" but a flooding event. Surely it's
a good idea to warn people of the possibility of that.

Nick