Weather Banter - View Single Post - Looking very unsettled and cool at 10 days.

Alan LeHun · August 29th 11, 01:11 AM posted to uk.sci.weather

In article cb220735-76a5-402f-a53f-
, says...

Let's see what tomorrow's models show. If they are still showing
unsettled tomorrow evening, I'll be forecasting exactly that. I
remember your forecast for September/Autumn last year Will and it's
reliance on your knowledge of the interactions of extra-tropical
hurricanes with the jet. You seemed to know what would happen then.
I'm glad to see that you're now less sure. *))

You may also remember that about that time he gave you clue about the
reliability of current models forecasting past tropical/sub-tropical
transitions. He was right to express "mild amusement" at your mis-placed
confidence in your forecast (And indeed, it did turn out to be one of
your misses).

That was the forecast you made that tried to forecast past the
transition of hurricane Igor, iirc.

On this occasion, Irene is undergoing transition just now and Jose is
expected to do so soon, and again Will is trying to give you clue. You
really shouldn't be so flippant when he does so.

Found the post.

--
Alan LeHun