On Aug 29, 1:11*am, Alan LeHun wrote:
In article cb220735-76a5-402f-a53f-
, says...

Let's see what tomorrow's models show. If they are still showing
unsettled tomorrow evening, I'll be forecasting exactly that. I
remember your forecast for September/Autumn last year Will and it's
reliance on your knowledge of the interactions of extra-tropical
hurricanes with the jet. You seemed to know what would happen then.
I'm glad to see that you're now less sure. *))

You may also remember that about that time he gave you clue about the
reliability of current models forecasting past tropical/sub-tropical
transitions. He was right to express "mild amusement" at your mis-placed
confidence in your forecast (And indeed, it did turn out to be one of
your misses).

That was the forecast you made that tried to forecast past the
transition of hurricane Igor, iirc.

On this occasion, Irene is undergoing transition just now and Jose is
expected to do so soon, and again Will is trying to give you clue. You
really shouldn't be so flippant when he does so.

Found the post.

--
Alan LeHun

"Will is trying yo give a clue..........." Hmmm. "Flippant". Hmmm.
Research the current state of knowledge about the effects of extra-
tropical hurricanes on the jet. You'll find it is developing, it is
beginning to contribute to model development, but is not at a stage
where it can, in any way, be accurately incorporated into forecasts.
The interactions are far too complex. Prof Sir Brian Hoskins has been
instrumental in the MetO (See the current issue of "Barometer") in
making sure that the business targets for the MetO do not go beyoind
the science required to fulfil them. I feel exactly the same way about
individual's forecasting not going beyond what is presently published
science and I've been vocal on here in cautioning against people
extrapolating present knowledge further that it should be, in an
attempt to infer integrity to their forecasts. That's exactly what
Will did last year in talking about the effects of extra-tropical
depressions. I'd rather go to source, Alan and not simply believe
someone else and I'd counsel you to do the same.

PS In 7 years, 20% of my forecasts have been incorrect and the one
where I forecast anticyclonic conditions on 29th Sept last year was a
poor one. You are right on that score.