After days of model froth, changes and awful inconsistency, that's
suddenly 5 consecutive gfs runs showing high pressure dominating the
UK weather at T+240 and good agreement from the ECM. So:

**On Sunday 18th Sept, the majority of the UK will be under the
influence of high pressure, with the jet to the north of the UK,
leading to dry and settled conditions for most and especially for the
south and south-east of the country. The exact position of the high is
just impossible to forecast at 10 days and there are suggestions that
it may settle just to our west, allowing a cooler north-westerly flow
and threatening the NW fringes with some rain. There have also been
suggestions that it will settle over England and Wales, leading to
some warm days and clear and cooler nights in both countries, but a
less settled flow over northern Scotland.**

For me, there's an 80% chance that the weather at 10 days will be far
more settled than what we are likely to see this weekend.