On Sun, 11 Sep 2011 20:30:47 +0100, Adam Lea wrote:

After the very destructive 2004 & 2005 hurricane seasons there was some
suggestion that a warming climate was increasing the intensity of
tropical cyclones. The general consensus now is that in a warmer
climate, tropical cyclone numbers globally will decrease

The "suggestion" that a warming climate would increase the number and
intensity of cyclones predates 2004 by a few decades. With increasing sea
temperatures I'd expect this to happen and for them to spread their area
of influence.

Is the counter-argument something to do with the upper troposphere being
forecast to warm more than lower down and so reducing instability?
Against that, the stratosphere is cooling as expected and so I'd expect
the depth of the troposphere to be increasing and hence, depth of
instability.

The last few years, hurricanes seem to have been hampered by shear more
than I've seen before. Has that got anything to do with the forecast
reductions?



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