On Oct 19, 8:34*am, Adam Lea wrote:
On 19/10/11 06:28, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 18, 11:55 pm, Adam *wrote:
On 18/10/11 06:29, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 17, 5:47 pm, * *wrote:
Probably model fluff, but you can imagine the scurrying and
speculation amongst the coldies if these charts cropped up on 2 models
in January - even if it was for just one run on each!!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png
3 consecutive gfs runs and 2 consecutive ECM runs. Still low
probability, but a Scandinavian high is still showing on the charts
and is shown stalling the passage of Atlantic depressions over the UK
on both models at T240 and creating the classic battleground
conditions.
PS Yesterday's was posted to pre-empt and dissuade the coldies from
doing what they annoy many of us to death with each winter, shouting
"EASTERLIES" every time a Scandinavian high shows in the far reaches
of gfs. Today we have the backing of a few runs, but it's only low
probability still. It'll need two more gfs runs before I become
properly interested.
If you like snow then easterlies aren't enough, you need moisture and
uplift as well, otherwise all you get is either cold sunny conditions
with night frosts, or that horrible dull anticyclonic gloom type weather
with a strong cold wind that feels like it blows right through you.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Don't we just know it! No good for man, nor beast!
2 days on from my original post and it now looks like the model
suggestions will resolve into a short-lived battleground slowing of
the Atlantic, with southerlies/south-easterlies for a while, leading
to more October warmth, followed by a gradual winning out by the
Atlantic. How many times do we see that in winter with the associated
angst, soul-searching and banging of heads by the coldies when their
dreams are shattered once again, is pretty awful to see.
That's why uk.sci.weather is a far better place than weather fora
through the winter. Apart from a few individuals (one professional who
really should know a lot better) who jump on the cold bandwagon every
time, posters here are generally far more conservative and will wait
for that agreement and consistency in the models before beginning to
expect cold and snow. Don't you just love in internet weather winter?
*))
Speculation is part of the fun though. :-)
I wonder if those of us who are young enough to only have memories of
the (historically) unusually snowless decades of the 90's and 00's (with
the exception of the last three years) appreciate the snow more than
those who have memories of the 60's through 80's. Just a thought.- Hide quoted text -
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There wasn't a lot of snow in the SE in the 30's either even though a
cold decade. If my memory serves me well I can only remember 1970 at
Christmas and 78/79. There may have been some falls in rural areas in
other years but only those two years stand out for snow in SE London.