HA HA SUCKER
I KNEW SHREK WOULD REPLY

On 13/11/2011 9:35 PM, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 13, 4:20 pm, wrote:
Keep an eye on them. The intrinsic probabilistic data have recently
shown signs of being flipped from the current solution (ie not cold),
just as they were tilted towards a milder outlook a few days ago...Now
thay are looking as if they could re-flip in the 6 to 15 day period
outlook. A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid
the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks.

The models are such that this sort of situation becomes mathematically
unstable with just the slightest change to just 1 or 2 aspects of the
variable dataset. The deterministic output will consequently flip-flop
for a while (ie now), before the true scope of the forecast becomes
clearer mathematically (more constant model output/outcomes). This
time span seems to be in the next 6 to 15 day period.

Neo

It will be interesting to see if your ideas come to fruition. There is
nothing on the models to suggest this, but models can change
spectacularly in the course of 4 days and to be perfectly honest, I
wouldn't expect them to stay the same as what is being shown at T+300+
either (I don't think we will see any great cold at 6 days though).

I note that you haven't actually said how they will change and what
new synoptic set-up will produce the cold, or how cold it is likely to
get, or at what actual time, apart from sometime in a 10-day period,
we'll see this change. I guess you are keeping your options open on
those. *))