On Nov 16, 8:30*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 13, 4:20*pm, Neo wrote:

Keep an eye on them. The intrinsic probabilistic data have recently
shown signs of being flipped from the current solution (ie not cold),
just as they were tilted towards a milder outlook a few days ago...Now
thay are looking as if they could re-flip in the 6 to 15 day period
outlook. A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid
the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks.

The models are such that this sort of situation becomes mathematically
unstable with just the slightest change to just 1 or 2 aspects of the
variable dataset. The deterministic output will consequently flip-flop
for a while (ie now), before the true scope of the forecast becomes
clearer mathematically (more constant model output/outcomes). This
time span seems to be in the next 6 to 15 day period.

Neo

I kept an eye on them. Nothing extra-specially cold 3 days on, Neo;
just the possibility of the high pressure that looked like it might
settle to our S/SE, now looking like it may settle over the UK. Just
looks like a slow and steady descent into early winter, with a little
cooler temperatures, but with them staying pretty average really and
the possibility of some frog and fost if the skies clear. 8))

See if the model agreement about the position of the high pressure
lasts to tonight.

Just as an addition to the last comment; neither the gfs 00z. nor the
ECM 12z from yesterday back the establishment of a static high
pressure over the UK at 10 days and we may well see the models change
back to a more zonal outlook during today. There's nothing
particularly cold about the ensemble means of either model.