On Nov 16, 10:19*am, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 16 Nov 2011 01:50:08 -0800 (PST)





Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 16, 9:41*am, Alastair wrote:
On Nov 16, 9:01*am, James Brown
wrote:

James has done a
Larry/April 2010 here.

Not correct as if you look carefully at the graph this is as the
title of this thread indicated, the FIRST time it reached less
than the 2007 level this year.

That's not strictly true. Look
hehttp://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaice...03_Figure2.png

The problem is you are just handing ammunition to the deniers who
will claim it is just weather.

The point you should be making is that those graphs show that sea
ice is well below the 1979 - 2000 average. In fact it is
significantly outside the 2 sigma standard deviation, making it
clear that there has been a climate change there since 2007 at
least. If we have another 2007 type event then the sea ice may not
recover by the following spring, and then it is goodbye sea ice :-(

Cheers, Alastair.

Do you really think there will be no sea ice in the Arctic in winter
in the near future? How much do you think winter Arctic temperatures
averaging -20-30C every single day for 3+ months warm over the next
century!

It will be goodbye *summer* sea ice, for a short time, at some time,
probably in the next 30-50 years Alastair, not goodbye Arctic sea ice
in its entirity!

If the ice is lost during the summer, which looks sure to happen
this decade, so will be the layer of fresh surface water. This would
make the re-freezing of the Arctic more difficult in winter. It was the
theory fifty years ago that if the ice completely melted, it wouldn't
return in winter. Consequences of that could be the sudden end of this
interglacial with onset of glaciation.

I understand that computer models now say that the ice would return in
winter, but we know how successful they've been at predicting the
response of ice to AGW. ;-)

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks. E-mail: change boy to man
Teach evolution, not creationism:http://evolutionnotcreationism.org.uk/- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

At -30 for 3 months+ it won't make a great deal of difference though,
surely graham, it will just delay the freezing a little longer - which
may well be already happening as vast areas that remained frozen
through the whole year,are now ice-free through late summer and
through September. They still freeze quickly once winter starts with a
vengeance and they are almost all completely frozen again by December.