On Nov 17, 11:01*am, Neo wrote:
On Nov 17, 6:54*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Nov 16, 1:35*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 16, 1:01*pm, Neo wrote:

On Nov 16, 8:37*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 16, 8:30*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 13, 4:20*pm, Neo wrote:

Keep an eye on them. The intrinsic probabilistic data have recently
shown signs of being flipped from the current solution (ie not cold),
just as they were tilted towards a milder outlook a few days ago...Now
thay are looking as if they could re-flip in the 6 to 15 day period
outlook. A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid
the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks.

The models are such that this sort of situation becomes mathematically
unstable with just the slightest change to just 1 or 2 aspects of the
variable dataset. The deterministic output will consequently flip-flop
for a while (ie now), before the true scope of the forecast becomes
clearer mathematically (more constant model output/outcomes). This
time span seems to be in the next 6 to 15 day period.

Neo

I kept an eye on them. Nothing extra-specially cold 3 days on, Neo;
just the possibility of the high pressure that looked like it might
settle to our S/SE, now looking like it may settle over the UK. Just
looks like a slow and steady descent into early winter, with a little
cooler temperatures, but with them staying pretty average really and
the possibility of some frog and fost if the skies clear. 8))

See if the model agreement about the position of the high pressure
lasts to tonight.

Just as an addition to the last comment; neither the gfs 00z. nor the
ECM 12z from yesterday back the establishment of a static high
pressure over the UK at 10 days and we may well see the models change
back to a more zonal outlook during today. There's nothing
particularly cold about the ensemble means of either model.

Hi Dawlish,

What is your source of the interpreted information?
Or do you derive that from looking at some of the publicly available
output?
Do you work at a large glass building in Devon, hence your screen
name?

Something I have seen in the model outputs (Might have been be an
outlier a few days ago, but a few more than one now suggest this)
suggests something changing on or around the end of Nov/early Dec.
It suggests a cold NNW incursion as low pressure/cold front sinks SE
from a temporary mobile W scenario. This followed by rising pressure
across the far N of the UK, giving some N, then NE winds. The high
then becomes slow moving just to the N of the UK, and may even link
with the high over towards Finland eventually.
The info would suggest normal temps just ahead of this event, with any
rainfall reverting to snow on scottish mountains, followed by a cold
regime, especially for the N and E of the UK.
Low pressure begins to affect the Med area/S Europe, with unsettled
conditions for many down there.

Looks like maybe we will see the changes take effect as December draws
in. Can't be any worse that last year, whatever happens.

I also wonder if the upper atmospheric cooling might be behind some
models hinting at this...as not all models incorporate anything too
much above the Jet levels in their longer term variables...it is still
early days in that area of research even now,

Just a thought.

Cheers

Neo- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I agree the models could always change. Indeed, at 2 weeks, the odds
are they probably will. Nothing showing at present however, that I can
see and it certainly didn't change in yout initial 3/4 day suggested
period. I see you are now suggesting the end of November. Are you
trying to look in the 10-16 day period here on the gfs, or do have
access to some non-publically avainlable data. If so. What is it?

There appears to be nothing unusual happening in the stratosphere.

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktue...w/wdiag/ts.php

Recent research suggests that SSW events may influence NH weather. I'm
not aware of reearch that shows that stratospheric cooling causes any
changes at surface levels, but I'd be interested to see a link.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Nothing showing cold on the 00z gfs, or ECM. This will probably end up
a very warm November.

November is not in my time frame for the cold incursion...that's
December...specifically transitional during the first week.
November will be mild, purely because it has been well over average up
to and including day 17, and the S winds continue for now.

Neo- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

HI Neo.

You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the
title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3
to 4 days":

"A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid the
cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks."

and this, 2 days later on 16th Nov when no cooling was showing in
that time frame: "......something changing on or around the end of Nov/
early Dec".

Now you are saying "November is not in my time frame for the cold
incursion...that's December...specifically transitional during the
first week"

If you keep saying it will get cold and putting the date of the cold
back every time it doesn't happen, I can guarantee that your forecast
of cold will be correct at some time this winter. I agree with you; it
will get cold at some time.