On Nov 18, 7:22*am, "Joe Whyte" wrote:
"Neo" *wrote in message

...

HI Neo.

You said this on Nov 13th when you opened this discussion with the
title; "The Models will all change their long term ideas in the next 3
to 4 days":

Neo

Paul has established himself as the newsgroup's resident "debunker" or, as
some might even put it, the thought police! He raised very valid points
himself about the integrity or credibility of certain forecasters who you
will see mentioned now and again on this newsgroup. These are the amateur
money-making headline spinners who, when they're wrong, will never admit to
it. These "charlatan" forecasters are legends in their own mind and their
forecast accuracy is dubious except to themselves.

I don't think you're in that category and, having only started posting to
this newsgroup, I think you should be given the time and place to express
your thoughts and establish your own credentials further before what is
basically now seen as a judgement.

I wouldn't be brave enough, or skilled enough, to try and forecast anything
beyond the 5-day limit myself. When others do I hope to see tat they will
expand on their thoughts; give clear reasoning and when or if things go awry
that they can acknowledge that an learn from it.

Carry on posting however be prepared for what will hopefully be constructive
criticism (or praise). That's how it should be I imagine.

Good luck Neo.

Joe

"debunker", heh. I've been called a lot worse! *)) That's how it
will be. Joe's right in many ways. I base forecasting capability of
outcome success and I never judge a forecast by what is written in it;
no matter how believable it sounds. When someone foecasts something
and it doesn't happen, oddly, I doubt the skill of the forecaster and
I monitor others' forecasts. If a forecast goes wrong, I like the
forecaster to admit that and explain why. Your discussion thread said
the models would change to show very different conditions within 3-4
days, from 13th Nov, implying colder conditions would establish
themselves within a 16-day period i.e. before the end of November.
They haven't changed at all and continue to show fairly mild weather.
Instead instead of offering an explanation, you've just re-forecast
the establishment of any cold back into December and started to give
me a little grief instead.

Monitoring others' forecasts doesn't seem to go down well, for some
reason. I don't think anyone likes having their forecasts monitored,
they'd generally rather write them, often full of meteorological
language, but the proposed reasons seldom (and I mean seldom) have the
positive (and usually cold) outcome they have proposed. That can lead
to the forecaster turning a little sour when I say they were wrong and
ask them why.

If you wish to forecast, then achieve accuracy and I'll be the first
to praise; promise. The regular posters know me well here and my
google profile will give you all the information you need. Perhaps
you'd like to introduce yourself and tell the source of your
"information", as all we know about you is your pseudonym. I live in
Dawlish, hence my name and my name is Paul. Good luck Neo.