Neo, it is always difficult to second-guess the models.
However, what the Met Office has been saying in the professional briefings I
have attended each morning is that the block will be very stubborn with
multiple trough disruptions helping to maintain it. This keeps most rain in
the west but means detail is very difficult even at a few days as models
struggle with trough disruptions. Len Wood mentioned in another thread that
the Rossby wavelengths are such as to maintain persistence and he has been
right so far. But, another thing we have been saying is that the block
*will* slowly erode with some form of zonality establishing itself by the
end of the month, coinciding with your thoughts to an extent. So by December
we could well be in a colder NW'ly scenario, how cold is yet to be seen, but
cold SSTs in western Atlantic would suggest to me that a mid-Atlantic ridge
could build plunging us rapidly into a bitter northerly, note Ny Alesund has
been very cold of late. This would also retrogress the Rossby pattern and
put us into the more active cold side. Until the high topples and we settle
down into a mild zonal winter :-) I didn't say that, I'm still going for a
cold and snowy December. Weather and this newsgroup should be fun, enjoy!

Will
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