On Nov 18, 9:05*am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
Neo, it is always difficult to second-guess the models.
However, what the Met Office has been saying in the professional briefings I
have attended each morning is that the block will be very stubborn with
multiple trough disruptions helping to maintain it. This keeps most rain in
the west but means detail is very difficult even at a few days as models
struggle with trough disruptions. Len Wood mentioned in another thread that
the Rossby wavelengths are such as to maintain persistence and he has been
right so far. But, another thing we have been saying is that the block
*will* slowly erode with some form of zonality establishing itself by the
end of the month, coinciding with your thoughts to an extent. So by December
we could well be in a colder NW'ly scenario, how cold is yet to be seen, but
cold SSTs in western Atlantic would suggest to me that a mid-Atlantic ridge
could build plunging us rapidly into a bitter northerly, note Ny Alesund has
been very cold of late. This would also retrogress the Rossby pattern and
put us into the more active cold side. Until the high topples and we settle
down into a mild zonal winter :-) I didn't say that, I'm still going for a
cold and snowy December. Weather and this newsgroup should be fun, enjoy!

Will
--

Hi Will,
Thank you for your responses. (And everyone else too).
I am familiar with the Met Office thoughts on the next weeks, however,
my forecast is not for the acrual weather, but just for the changing
path of the models bias and outcomes.
Yes, I am still going for the models pointing ever more to a colder
scenario during the end Nov/early Dec, so in weather forecasting
terms, the 4 to 10 day outlook will be progressively cooler as from
that time.
Forecasting can only be done reliably from 12 to 48 hours in my
experience. Seat of pants forecasting is what we call it in the trade.
Sometimes it can be more difficult to get the next 4 hours right, let
alone anything weeks ahead.
Far better for forecasters to add value to the model itself in many
"long term" cases, as this time of year always brings out the Crystal
ball hogging "gypsy" forecasters, many of whom have a biased
"Dickensian" view of how winter should pan out.

Yes, Dawlish is correct, it is mild now, and looks mild for some days
yet, but that is not what I am about. I am predicting a swing in
"model outcomes" to a more cool outlook, then becoming decidedly cold.
Various outlying "tubes" of most models are now becoming less inclined
to mild conditions for us in the UK, and as you point out, some signs
of the rossby changes you mention are starting to take effect in a few
places. I may not be correct, in fact I know I'm not 100 correct
already, but I do try to do the best I can with the data and vast
experience that I have.
I do have the best advanced training in Meteorology under my belt,
various Model interpretation, computer and mathematical modelling, a
couple of good degrees in Maths and Physics with Chemistry, one in a
Technical design BA subject, and over 2 decades experience in the
right area. Added to that I hold a good position in my career, and am
respected in my field.
I have numerous big hobbies too including Astronomy and Geology.
Heck, I might even try and become a forecaster, rather than a guesser.

I may continue in here, I may not, but anyone who knows how it all
works will say it is a hard and sometimes dangerous thing to forecast
weeks in advance. Maybe it is more satisfying to me to see what I
think the models will turn their attention too instead. Forecasting is
one thing, borrowing someone else's forecast is quite another. I never
do the latter.

Neo