On Nov 18, 11:56*am, Len Wood wrote:
On Nov 18, 10:48*am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:



"Neo" wrote in message

....
On Nov 18, 9:05 am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:

Neo, it is always difficult to second-guess the models.
However, what the Met Office has been saying in the professional briefings
I
have attended each morning is that the block will be very stubborn with
multiple trough disruptions helping to maintain it. This keeps most rain
in
the west but means detail is very difficult even at a few days as models
struggle with trough disruptions. Len Wood mentioned in another thread
that
the Rossby wavelengths are such as to maintain persistence and he has been
right so far. But, another thing we have been saying is that the block
*will* slowly erode with some form of zonality establishing itself by the
end of the month, coinciding with your thoughts to an extent. So by
December
we could well be in a colder NW'ly scenario, how cold is yet to be seen,
but
cold SSTs in western Atlantic would suggest to me that a mid-Atlantic
ridge
could build plunging us rapidly into a bitter northerly, note Ny Alesund
has
been very cold of late. This would also retrogress the Rossby pattern and
put us into the more active cold side. Until the high topples and we
settle
down into a mild zonal winter :-) I didn't say that, I'm still going for a
cold and snowy December. Weather and this newsgroup should be fun, enjoy!

Will
--

Hi Will,Thankyouforyour responses. (And everyone else too).
I am familiar with the Met Office thoughts on the next weeks, however,my forecast is not for the acrual weather, but just for the changingpath of the models bias and outcomes.
Yes, I am still going for the models pointing ever more to a colderscenario during the end Nov/early Dec, so in weather forecasting
terms, the 4 to 10 day outlook will be progressively cooler as fromthattime.
Forecasting can only be done reliably from 12 to 48 hours in myexperience. Seatof pants forecasting is whatwe call it in the trade.
Sometimes it can be more difficult to get the next 4 hours right, let
alone anything weeks ahead.
Far better for forecasters to add value to the model itself in many
"long term" cases, as this time of year always brings out the Crystalball hogging "gypsy" forecasters, many of whomhavea biased
"Dickensian" view of how winter should pan out.

Yes, Dawlish is correct, it is mild now, and looks mild for some daysyet, but thatis not whatI am about. I am predicting a swing in
"model outcomes" to a more cool outlook, then becoming decidedly cold.
Various outlying "tubes" of most models are now becoming less inclinedto mild conditions for us in the UK, and asyoupoint out, some signsof the rossby changesyoumention are starting to take effect in a few
places. I may not be correct, in fact I know I'm not 100 correctalready, but I do try to do the best I can with the data and vastexperience thatIhave.I dohavethe best advanced training in Meteorology under my belt,various Model interpretation, computer and mathematical modelling, acouple of good degrees in Maths and Physics with Chemistry, one in a
Technical design BA subject, and over 2 decades experience in theright area. Added to thatI hold a good position in my career, and am
respected in my field.Ihavenumerous big hobbies too including Astronomy and Geology.Heck, I might even try and become a forecaster, rather than a guesser.

I may continue in here, I may not, but anyone who knows how it all
works will say it is a hard and sometimes dangerous thing to forecastweeks in advance. Maybe it is more satisfying to me to see whatIthink the models will turn theirattention too instead. Forecasting is
one thing, borrowing someone else's forecast is quite another. I neverdo the latter.

Neo

=================

OK cheers Neo. We in the Met Office rely on ensembles a lot and theyhave
been consistent in flagging a colder NW ly or even northerly as we go intoDec. Thatis a changeyoutoo expect I think. A lot of data are not
available publicly though (e.g. Met Office model ensembles). The MetO also
run 4km and 1.5km resolution models to get detailed evolutions over the UK,particulaly for extreme rainfall events (again not publicly available).Youdon't say whereyougotyour "advanced training" from? I used to teachmeteorology and forecasting, wereyouone of my students? :-)

--http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Or were you one of my students Neo?
:-)
Where did you study for your degrees?
No need to answer if you don't want to.
A lot of people on this ng want to remain as anonymous as possible.
That's OK, as long as we all try to remain courteous to each other.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon, 83 m asl
------------------------------------------------------

My place of work and identity will remain anonymous due to my
employment contract. Also, I was sponsored by my employer so many
years ago to study, and I morally owe it to them.
Will, I am familiar with the Met Office ensembles, 1.5 (UKV) and 4KM
models, just as much as the coarse Global output. All very good tools,
but at the moment, no more than that...tools....the important boundary
layer will always confuse and confound even the best high resolution
array, with its topography, geology, agriculture, and localised
variance in water vapour etc....especially in areas like the UK with
it's almost unique set of airmass influences and off continent
Maritime position.
Moisture handling of the model routines is very complex, more so near
to the ground or sea surfaces.
The WAFC forecasts are all very good regarding quality and
reliability, more especially above FL050-100, the models do a very
good job there in the 12-36 hour period on the whole.
I prefer to concentrate on how the models fluctuate in the longer term
and see how real events can flip the decisions that they make from day
to day, run to run.
The weather type is more important to me than the specifics at that
sort of range.
Lamb scenarios are often a good guide, defining the types expected in
the later frames of model runs....but you still need the human factor
I think.

Good luck everyone, with the weather, you will need tons of it.

Neo