"Eskimo Will" wrote:

Neo, it is always difficult to second-guess the models.
However, what the Met Office has been saying in the professional briefings
I have attended each morning is that the block will be very stubborn with
multiple trough disruptions helping to maintain it. This keeps most rain
in the west but means detail is very difficult even at a few days as
models struggle with trough disruptions. Len Wood mentioned in another
thread that the Rossby wavelengths are such as to maintain persistence and
he has been right so far. But, another thing we have been saying is that
the block *will* slowly erode with some form of zonality establishing
itself by the end of the month, coinciding with your thoughts to an
extent. So by December we could well be in a colder NW'ly scenario, how
cold is yet to be seen, but cold SSTs in western Atlantic would suggest to
me that a mid-Atlantic ridge could build plunging us rapidly into a bitter
northerly, note Ny Alesund has been very cold of late. This would also
retrogress the Rossby pattern and put us into the more active cold side.
Until the high topples and we settle down into a mild zonal winter :-) I
didn't say that, I'm still going for a cold and snowy December. Weather
and this newsgroup should be fun, enjoy!

Interesting stuff, thanks Will. I'm a complete novice at this stuff. Is
the high pressure over central Europe blocking the west-to-east flow,
meaning that we get more southerly winds instead? Would an early indication
of possible cold weather for the UK be the disappearance of that high
pressure over Europe?

Cheers,
John.