On Nov 13, 4:20*pm, Neo wrote:
Keep an eye on them. The intrinsic probabilistic data have recently
shown signs of being flipped from the current solution (ie not cold),
just as they were tilted towards a milder outlook a few days ago...Now
thay are looking as if they could re-flip in the 6 to 15 day period
outlook. A few things are coming together now that will seem to aid
the cooling process in W Europe over the coming days/weeks.

The models are such that this sort of situation becomes mathematically
unstable with just the slightest change to just 1 or 2 aspects of the
variable dataset. The deterministic output will consequently flip-flop
for a while (ie now), before the true scope of the forecast becomes
clearer mathematically (more constant model output/outcomes). This
time span seems to be in the next 6 to 15 day period.

Neo

The models haven't changed, Neo. No colder conditions at the start of
December are on the horizon. The ensembles are actually trending more
towards a continuing Atlantic zonal scenario and the suggested
northerly, then a sinking of the lows into Europe allowing easterlies
to develop is now very unlikely during the first week of December.
Will's snowflake also looks less and less likely with the 06z gfs,
which is ticking upwards, in terms of the ensemble mean temperatures,
at 10 days+. We'll lose the very mild weather, but we are not looking
at below average temperatures at the start of December. Piers must be
chewing on his middle knuckles by now, desperately hoping it will all
change - blizzards on Dec 1/2 look extremely unlikely!

What's happened?