"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

On Nov 13, 4:20 pm, Neo wrote:
The models haven't changed, Neo. No colder conditions at the start of
December are on the horizon. The ensembles are actually trending more
towards a continuing Atlantic zonal scenario and the suggested
northerly, then a sinking of the lows into Europe allowing easterlies
to develop is now very unlikely during the first week of December.
Will's snowflake also looks less and less likely with the 06z gfs,
which is ticking upwards, in terms of the ensemble mean temperatures,
at 10 days+. We'll lose the very mild weather, but we are not looking
at below average temperatures at the start of December. Piers must be
chewing on his middle knuckles by now, desperately hoping it will all
change - blizzards on Dec 1/2 look extremely unlikely!

What's happened?

Paul, I detect an element of point-scoring amidst your otherwise reasonable
post? If not, my apologies. However sometimes it does come across that way!

Neo's assessment of Nov 13th now looks highly (no pun intended!) unlikely as
per the synoptic pattern he described. The chance of a Greenland High
Pressure, or any High pressure in or around that location, exerting an
influence in the immediate or medium term does not seem likely. Until I see
some greens (or even light blues) indicating proper height rises over
Greenland I won't be expecting anything of the sort.

12z 21/11 9-panel
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.gif

Having said that though there is a cooling on the way and the ensembles show
that fairly markedly IMO. Colder conditions for early December certainly
look on the cards, i.e. colder than what we have had with 12-15c temp now
falling to something more normal or even slightly below at times, 7-8c?

Ref. Dublin 12z 21/11 850hpA
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Based on this set of ensembles I think it's more than reasonable for Will to
make the call he has. Snow at his altitude would seem more than possible I
would have though?

As for Piers............don't get me started...........I'm sure there is
some perfectly acceptable excuse or, as is the norm, the weather IS
happening as he forecast. It's just in the wrong place!! ;-)

Joe