On Nov 30, 6:55*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 29, 8:13*pm, "Joe Whyte" wrote:





"John Hall" *wrote in message

.. .
Yes, for London too the 12Z ensemble has slightly changed its tune from
earlier runs. Whereas for the past few days it has been showing a cool
week or so then giving way to average-to-mild conditions, on the 12Z
it's showing it remaining on the cool side throughout. However one needs
to enter three caveats:

1. Beyond ten days one probably shouldn't take too much notice. This is
the most important caveat, of course.
2. The operational run shows it becoming decidedly mild, though this is
very much an outlier.
3. There doesn't seem to be anything really cold on the horizon. Even
the colder runs in the ensemble don't get down below about -5C at 850mb,
apart from the odd day here and there, and (disregarding the possibility
of an inversion) one really needs something like -8 to -10 to get
anything really wintry.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw
================================================== =======

I agree John and, while cold, it's not Piers Corbyn-esque type cold with his
80% change of significant snowfalls on 2/3rd and 14th(?) Dec unless you
could hilltops in the North...which he will no doubt!

Normal winter weather for a while as far as I'm concerned with a few cold
days; risk of frost at night; some wintry and possibly squally showers. It's
been a while and it is noticeably colder than recent but nothing close to
this time last year as I well know. *Beyond ten days I take just a slight
notice and look for trends....and more trends and even then...who really
knows!!

Joe
Dublin
28m AMSL

Nothing changes this morning. Ensembles show a continuation of zonal
conditions with some milder and some cooler days. Temperature
somewhere close to average, or a little below, through much of the
period, with snow over the northern hills on a fairly regular basis.
Will could see his first snowflake at Haytor early next week. There's
a risk of a couple of colder days and snow at lower levels in the
North from time to time, especially at 9/10 days with the 12z ECM from
yesterday showing a possible northerly and the 00z gfs showing a cold
north-westerly. This models show, as Darren says, an oscillation
between milder and cooler days as the depressions pass. Typical
Atlantic, zonal weather. It will be wet at times and windy at times,
for sure! The majority of the UK will remain snowless.

The odds on a white Christmas are as you would expect - heavily
stacked in favour of the bookies! 7/1 against in London. I always get
interested around the 15th. What I'd like are some model sniffs of
possible snow on Christmas day and the usual suspects shouting about
it on the Internet. I'd like some "forecaster" to predict in in a
Daily Express headline very soon and get the public interested. Then
if the models show agreement and consistency for a green Christmas,
I'll hopefully dive in at odds of around 1/4, or 1/5 around 10-12 days
out. It pays for Christmas lunch quite regularly - but the key, as
always, is in knowing when *not* to bet - and for that you've got to
know your models at distance.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

There's an interesting and very different chart on the 12z ECM. High
pressure over the UK at 10 days. We haven't seen that for a while! Bet
it's an outlier.