On Dec 4, 12:06*pm, "Gavino" wrote:
"Nick Humphries" wrote in message

o.uk...

Dawlish wrote:
You can't trust any of this stuff. It's speculation on tiny
possibilities; no more.

Well, quite. The fun is in the tracking, the commentary, and watching
those probabilities grow and shrink. And whilst the points you raise
may be valid ones, your personality negates any contribution you make.

Dawlish may have an irritating way of expressing himself (although I find
the childish and insulting reponses to him from Lawrence and the
name-changing idiot to be far more annoying), but he serves a useful
function on this group by urging a clear distinction between forecast,
speculation and fantasy (and reminding us that forecasts should be judged on
their results).

Forecast, speculation and fantasy are all fine and worthy of discussion
here, but often they are mixed up and it's not always clear which category
some comments fall into. And something which originally looks like a
forecast is often recast after the event as mere speculation when it doesn't
happen.

It would be useful if people could give some indication of probability when
making statements about the future. I don't mean necessarily a mathematical
percentage, simply an informal expression like "likely", "highly likely",
"possible", etc, would do.

And you are who? Why don't people use their real names. Looking at
your profile it would seem you come from the land of silly false ID's.
and you call me childish-bloody unbelievable!