"Eskimo Will" wrote in message
...
"Gavino" wrote in message
...
Forecast, speculation and fantasy are all fine and worthy of discussion
here, but often they are mixed up and it's not always clear which
category some comments fall into. And something which originally looks
like a forecast is often recast after the event as mere speculation when
it doesn't happen.

It would be useful if people could give some indication of probability
when making statements about the future. I don't mean necessarily a
mathematical percentage, simply an informal expression like "likely",
"highly likely", "possible", etc, would do.

All my musings are a commentary on the situation indicating possibilities
and are not always model based (one can talk meteorology without
mentioning models). All commentaries are based on 40 years of professional
experience and are definitely not idle speculation.
[snip]
Goodness knows why I am now justifying what I say and do though? :-)

No need to justify yourself, Will - your experience is well-known and
respected, and my comments were not aimed at anyone in particular.

Perhaps "speculation" was the wrong word? I didn't mean 'idle' speculation
(although we get some of that too), simply that statements about future
weather are bound to be uncertain and it would be useful to know how much
confidence to attach to them. It's often unclear whether something is being
put forward as fairly likely to happen or simply as a possibility or just a
long-shot (a 'speculation', even if based on scientific grounds rather than
the tea leaves prepared by the famous MetO teaboy).