On Dec 5, 5:24*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
Interesting looking at the MetO ensemble output today (not publicly
available) and the 12Z runs. Deep and stubborn very cold air over Greenland
continues to leak south reinforcing the jet and low-level baroclinic zone
maintaining the cold westerly type with a north-south gradient in
temperature. Already sleet has reached high ground in the SW with snow in
Wales. Over the next few days it looks like we will get some milder
interludes in the south as deep lows spin up in mid-Atlantic and buckle the
flow. Also the baroclinicity sinks south putting the UK bang in the firing
line for some rapid deepeners later on with cold air entrained, which will
be quite exciting! Only a small chance now of high pressure establishing
over UK or near continent. The picture is one of continuing cold zonality
with increased high potential vorticity (energy) in the flow.

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
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Just to illustrate my point that we have *not* had a "cold westerly"
across the UK for the last 10 days; the first 5 days of December, in
the CET region, had a temperature a smidgeon above average for early
December and we all know that November was the second coldest on
record in the UK and in the CET region the second warmest November in
353 years. The last week did very little to reduce the CET.

This talk of a cold westerly has been fantasy, up to 2 days ago for
much of the UK and a little longer in Scotland. Now, the situation is
more akin to what Will has been wanting us to think it has been since
the last week of November. I really am fed up with the exaggerration
for effect and to back up a post where a "cold westerly" was
apparently established a few days before almost UK record temperatures
in Aberdeen at 15.7C on 26th Nov.

We have had zonal weather since about 24/11/2011; it was well flagged
by the models and gave me 2 correct forecasts on the 27th and 30th
Nov. It has actually been warmer than average over the UK, *as a
whole*, during the 10-day period from then, up to the 4th. The
temperatures don't lie, I'm afraid.