On Dec 11, 6:06*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"fred" wrote in message

...

how accurate (in %age terms) is the GFS at 120h ?

Never mind the GFS detail Fred, look at the synoptics. A circa 200 knot has
been consistently forecast to slam into England and Wales on Friday.
Associated with this will be a deepening depression of the order 940 hPa
with a wind field wider than last Thursday's storm due to a different
deepening mechanism (Norwegian left exit and high specific humidity
entrained as opposed to Shapiro Keyser - confluent trough/right entrance
runner). This means that the damaging storm force winds will be spread over
a wider area. Precise track depends critically on when the deepening phase
will begin. High risk area has to be northern England to central Scotland
for the most damaging winds, but the MetO will refine that in due course. If
I was you Fred I'd prepare for a storm of greater ferocity, and longer
lasting than last week and hope for the best. My personal feeling is that
northern England should be very worried too and all parts of the UK will at
least have gales, except perhaps the far north on the northern side of low,
but even here the northerly could be fierce. This is a serious low system
and should not be under-estimated.

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Bugger, I was kind of hoping it would track a wee bit further south -
but the deeper it gets the more to the north it will go. We got really
thumped last week as Hurricane Bawbag exited stage right. Power has
still not been 100% restored and Hydro Board engineers were out at a
line down our road at 11pm last night to make things safe. It will be
interesting to see how the English civil authorities deal with this -
Up here, we are used to mental weather and are geared up for it to a
certain extent in as much as our infrastructure is newer ( because it
has blown down more often and more recently and consequently been
replaced). We have had "get ready for winter" messages from dawn till
dusk on all media sources bar messenger pigeons for weeks now. Our
transport Minister's head rolled last year - so you can bet there was
a lesson learned there for a young administration. And we hold all the
road grit in Western Europe in a big garden shed between Edinburgh and
Glasgow

The eye of 940mb off Fraserburgh suits me fine from a personal self
interest/protectionist position

Odd are this one will be Christened Hurricane Fannybaws.