On 11/12/2011 18:06, Eskimo Will wrote:
"fred" wrote in message
...
how accurate (in %age terms) is the GFS at 120h ?
Never mind the GFS detail Fred, look at the synoptics. A circa 200 knot
has been consistently forecast to slam into England and Wales on Friday.
Associated with this will be a deepening depression of the order 940 hPa
with a wind field wider than last Thursday's storm due to a different
deepening mechanism (Norwegian left exit and high specific humidity
entrained as opposed to Shapiro Keyser - confluent trough/right entrance
runner). This means that the damaging storm force winds will be spread
over a wider area. Precise track depends critically on when the
deepening phase will begin. High risk area has to be northern England to
central Scotland for the most damaging winds, but the MetO will refine
that in due course. If I was you Fred I'd prepare for a storm of greater
ferocity, and longer lasting than last week and hope for the best. My
personal feeling is that northern England should be very worried too and
all parts of the UK will at least have gales, except perhaps the far
north on the northern side of low, but even here the northerly could be
fierce. This is a serious low system and should not be under-estimated.
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------
With regards to the track of this system, I've seen elsewhere comments
such as as 'as the pressure drops, the low will veer North' or something
like that at least!
My question is why? Why will a deepening low pressure system move North
rather than South?
Sorry if it's a 'stoopid' question but despite having been lurking for a
few years, I'm still very much a Newb as far as the fluid dynamics of
the atmosphere is concerned!
BTW, Will - With comments like "200 knot . . . forecast to *slam* into
England and Wales on Friday", you might be able to get a part time job
at the Daily Excess when you retire - I'm sure 'slam' isn't a technical
term
Thanks
Neil