In article
,
Dawlish writes:
On Dec 23, 11:12*pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:

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You may be right but surely this does not meet your normally stipulated
model consistency criteria. There is absolutely no agreement from
January 2nd onwards in the ensembles so your normal advice would be to
ignore it.

It's about consistency and agreement between the 2 main models, for me
Dave and both have been rock solid out to T+240. They still are this
morning. I use the ensembles only as a check at 10 days, because the
spaghetti that you find there is not useful, on its own, for
forecasting.

If there is spaghetti at 10 days, then surely that indicates that the
operational run cannot be relied on. Having said which, the most recent
ECM ensemble mean pressure chart is actually in excellent agreement with
the operational run and is showing an unusually small degree of standard
deviation, especially in the vicinity of the UK.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw