"John Hall" wrote in message
...

If there is spaghetti at 10 days, then surely that indicates that the
operational run cannot be relied on. Having said which, the most recent
ECM ensemble mean pressure chart is actually in excellent agreement with
the operational run and is showing an unusually small degree of standard
deviation, especially in the vicinity of the UK.

Yes John, the ensemble mean is always the best guide for synoptic type, even
at low likelihood. The perturbations (members) will give probability of
weather based on the initial conditions at the time.
Time-lagged ensembles are better (not seen publicly) as they give an
indication of numerical stability and consistency. Also ensembles from the
MetO (not seen publicly) and with GFS used in conjunction can also add
confidence or otherwise.

Oh for a single multi-model, time-lagged ensemble product :-)

Will
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