On Dec 26, 5:36*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 26, 11:28*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 23, 7:48*pm, Dawlish wrote:
There's no end to it. This zonal spell of weather began around the
start of the last week in November and if this forecast proves
correct, the spell will be close to 6 weeks in length. The forecasts
of a cold December, that we had to endure from some quarters in early
November are now a distant, failed, memory. 2 months of the winter
left. It'll get cold and snow widely at some stage (probably) but
there's nothing, for most, on the 10-day horizon.
**At T240, on January 2nd 2012. the UK will still be under the
influence of zonal, Atlantic weather. Pressure will be higher to the
South of the UK than to the north. Temperatures will vary with the
position of the depressions which will continue to pass to the north
of Scotland - colder, with hill snow in their lee; mild and perhaps
very mild, as depressions approach. rainfall amounts will be above
average over the next 10 days, especially in the N and NW of Scotland,
where there will be occasional spells of gales. Frosts will be
confined to transient ridges and lowland snow will be absent, for
most**.
No blocking; very little chance of sledge weather for anyone living
below 250m. Sorry coldies, but you can do nothing about those
consistent charts.
Nothing that changes mymind on this one, 3 days in. If the charts stay
the same today, I may well extend this to the 5th. There seems no end
to this zonal spell, at present. It really is solidly consistent
across all models, not just the gfs and ECM.- Hide quoted text -
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gfs 12z keeps the zonal train on the tracks. See what the ECM shows.
The 12z operational showed a hint of rising pressure in mid-Atlantic
at 10-days, but with this ensemble set, I wouldn't trust it!
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...t6-london.gif- Hide quoted text -
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2 runs from the ECM showing more meridionality but no support
whatsoever from the gfs. No more than slight interest at present from
me and I think the depressions are more likely to roll the ridging out
of the way, so as to speak, tomorrow, but it ruins the model agreement
for a forecast.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif