On Jan 8, 10:06*am, Scott W wrote:
On Jan 8, 9:50*am, John Hall wrote:





In article
,
*Keith Harris writes:

On Jan 8, 8:18*am, Alan wrote:

Something seems to be brewing in terms of blocking. Whether cold air
extends westwards is another question. 08/01/2012 0Z ECMWF looks
interesting. At the time of writing the matching ensembles were not
available on wetterzentrale, but I guess quite a wide spread.

Of course the problem is, what cold air westwards, with Moscow in
meltdown it's going to take some time to cool down.

ISTR that in 1986 there was a very zonal spell in January, bringing mild
air as far as European Russia, so that when the wind turned to the east
towards the end of the month it took about five or six days before
really cold air reached the UK.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

I noticed that on Kartenarchiv earlier - February 1986 was probably
the coldest month I can remember in my part of the south-east. I
wonder what other variables have to be considered before the coldies
on here can start getting excited?

Heh, the coldies are already getting into a little frenzy Scott. It's
happening he "the thought of -40C dewpoints pushing southwest into
western Russia is mouthwatering to say the least!" and a short wander
around other forums would be eye-opening, with regard to the wild
speculation never mind eye watering! One Netweather poster's
assessment has already been copied to here, as evidence that it will
get cold! The possibility has got me interested too, but it is only a
possibility, as yet. 06z gfs keeps the cold at bay and it dissipates,
but there's no consistency in the gfs and no agreement over time
between the models - hence, not forecastable with any confidence.

Did you notice that not a single one of the usual tabloid attention
seeking "forecasters" forecast anything like this for the second half
of January? Can you imagine what they would now be making of that, if
they'd been luck enough, for once, to have persuaded the daily Express
to run a "Siberian weather on the way" at the start of January? Odd
that no-one saw fit to stick their neck out about this *possible*
change a week ago, isn't it?