On Jan 9, 10:57*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 9, 7:08*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:





On Jan 9, 4:30*pm, Scott W wrote:

On Jan 8, 6:36*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 8, 5:39*pm, Mark Chamberlain sent by Iphone

wrote:
At least partly anyway

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...ryid=945;sess=

Orsett, Essex

Before anyone imparts even more received wisdom about SSWs - and this
appears to be - may I refer to a post my Martin Rowley, which got me
interested in SSWs and for which I've thanked him before. Thanks
again! Before anyone goes accepting that received wisdom, I would
heartily implore you to read the papers in Martin's MetO library list.
Some are very relevant. None go to the extremes that Will does, or
Michael Fish and all are *very* cautious in linking SSWs with
individual surface conditions, except in very well developed major
events. This one is not.

This is very much a minor SSW event, as there has been no reversal in
stratospheric winds, rather than a major one. Several papers
investigate major events. None investigate minor ones, as far as I
know.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...catalogue.html

using the phrase:- "Sudden Stratospheric Warming"

Search found ... 103 titles.

I have extracted the titles of those which appear to be relevant to
*impacts of such events on the troposphe-
*[latest first/cut-off 1982]

Dynamical response of low-latitude middle atmosphere to major sudden
*stratospheric warming events
*Sathishkumar, S.
*Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, VOL. 71 NO..
8/9,
*2009

Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events
*Martius, O.
*Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 36 NO. 14, 2009

Planetary wave breaking and tropospheric forcing as seen in the
*stratospheric sudden warming of 2006
*Coy, L.
*Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 66 NO. 2, 2009

Is there a statistical connection between stratospheric sudden warming
*and tropospheric blocking e

ents?
*Taguchi, M.
*Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 65 NO. 4, 2008

Effect of stratospheric sudden warming and vortex intensification on
*the tropospheric climate
*Kuroda, Y.
*Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 113 NO. D15, 2008

The possible influence of stratospheric sudden warming on East Asian
*Weather
*Deng, S.
*Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, VOL. 25 NO. 5, 2008

What kind of stratospheric sudden warming propagates to the
*troposphere?
*Nakagawa, K.I.
*Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 4, 2006

Influence of stratospheric sudden warming on the equatorial
*troposphere
*Kodera, K.
*Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 33 NO. 6, 2006

The impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere during the southern
*hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming, September 2002
*Charlton, A.J.
*Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, VOL. 131 NO.
*609, 2005

A mechanistic model study of slowly propagating coupled
*stratosphere-troposphere variability
*Kodera, K.
*Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 105 NO. D10, 2000

Tropospheric circulation changes associated with stratospheric sudden
*warmings: a case study
*Kodera, K.
*Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 100 NO. D 6, 1995

The quasi-biennial oscillation and major stratospheric warmings: a
*three-dimensional model study
*Dameris, M.
*Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 2, 1990

Planetary waves modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)
*Maillard, A.
*Annales Geophysicae, VOL. 8 NO. 7/8, 1990

Sudden stratospheric warming and anomalous U.S. weather
*Douglas, D.A.
*Monthly Weather Review, VOL. 116 NO. 1, 1988

A numerical test of connections between the stratospheric sudden
*warming and the quasi-biennial oscillation
*Bridger, A.F.C.
*Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), VOL. 89 NO. D3, 1984

----- artificial cutoff at 1982 ----

And of course, these couplings have been studied by researchers in
*Russia, Japan, China and France, to name but four, and to do an
*exhaustive search would require looking for works published in those
*languages - it has been an 'active' area of research over the last 10
*years or so.

A word of caution: don't rely on a 'general' internet search for this
*type of subject: you need to interrogate specialised catalogues, such
*as this one, or the AMS etc.

Martin.

As it is a .sci newsgroup, I think anyone proposing these kind of
links should give an academic assessment of probabilities, based on
research and not upon what they think should be the effects of an SSW
event. I will happily change my mind and learn if I'm wrong.

I'm sure with all his experience in forecasting Mr Fish would have
considered all of the above, along with first principles?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

No Dawlish knows far better. *Who could forget his fantastic
forecasting succes rate. Trouble is most of the so called professional
forecaster *fear him and therefore ridicule his efforts down at
William Hill's.

You are out of your depth, as this involves looking at science and
actual research, I'm afraid,- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Opps: Sorry I forgot I was dealing with a superior human. Eugenics
anyone? I'd wager you're a Fabian.