Whether it snows or not may I wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and
a Happy New Year. I used this thread as I know it will be well read
throughout the day.

Thanks for your posts Will, always appreciated.


Keith (Southend)

***********************
Weather Home & Abroad
http://www.southendweather.net

On Sun, 19 Dec 2004 09:33:24 -0000, "Will Hand"
wrote:


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This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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Just had a look at all this morning's outputs and I have to say that we have the
best chance for a widespread white Christmas in the UK for years ! I rate it at
75% now. I see no reason to change my weekly forecast issued on Friday, however,
there could be a surprise for the south in that pressure falls to the SW could
induce a shallow Channel low bringing a spell of sleet and snow as the colder
air continues to advect south. If you calculate the thicknesses on the UKMO
output and of course looks at the GFS they all show deep cold air over the UK on
Xmas Day. So anywhere could get a spell of snow, even in normally mild areas
like Torbay and Penzance ! But obviously high ground and areas away from the
south coast have the greater chance.

Looking further ahead, it still looks like milder air will spread in on Boxing
day bringing a spell of snow turning to rain, much as my weekly forecast
suggested.

Old forecasting lags will also know that even though one can get snow in such
situations, you never get a severe blocked and prolonged cold spell with low
pressure near Scandinavia, the Atlantic will always easily bring in milder air.
But enjoy it while it lasts, it could be a memorable Christmas weatherwise.

Cheers,

Will.