On 20/01/2012 9:47 AM, Eskimo Will wrote:

"Stan" wrote in message
...
On 19/01/2012 5:36 PM, Eskimo Will wrote:
I think this summarises the present setup reasonably well.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2...t-of-february/



Next week, cold air struggles to come south but we do still end up with
an upper trough/low pressure over UK with a tricky rain/sleet/snow mix.

Wow the stratwarm has gone ballistic at 10hpa.
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2011_merra.pdf



Zonal wind has also decreased markedly
http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2011_merra.pdf



Going to be an interesting time, one way or the other!

Ciao,

Will
--


its doesnt look too 50/50 based on tonights runs
pendulum swung towards mild significantly


Pendulum swung again on 00Z runs in favour of a cold block. The
intensity and duration of the cold is now the question I'd say. Is it
going to be a "mellow" E to SE'ly with a lot of dry sunny weather
(except in Essex which will be plagued by stratus) and temperatures
2-4C, or is it going to be a "full on" cyclonic NE'ly with widespread
snow. Or is it going to be a high developing over southern Britain with
frosty nights breaking down from the NW with mild SW winds returning. My
money at present is on the "mellow" and Essex stratus :-)
I love the drama of winter, the next MetO update is going to be
interesting.

Will
--
and the pendulum swings back to mild on 12z ECM