On Jan 23, 5:19*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
Outputs during the day today would indicate that an easterly setting in next
week is more certain, given the caveats about model handling the disruption
of upper troughs. Key to this in part will be the development of the
Mediterranean vortex. Other ingredients are in place, the recent stratwarm
has slowed the circulation as evidenced by the 150 hPa mean zonal wind at
60N and warming continuing aloft. Air is cooling quickly now over Russia. Be
careful of drawing too many inferences with 850 hPa temperature in assessing
ensembles as there is likely to be a significant undercut of cold air like a
density current moving westwards. 'Middle of the road' evolution would be
the DT12Z UKMO to T+144 today 23rd. Note the 1030 hPa low over Denmark at
T+120, many runs have had something similar and that is the final stage of
the trough disruption process. By T+144 next Sunday it should be complete
and then it could potentially get interesting! Key thinking today was that
at any rate high pressure would develop over the UK regardless of any
easterly, but probability for a very cold easterly has increased. The army
are still in their bases though, LOL :-)

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
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As long as I can get to Gatwick on the 10th Feb !

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"