On 23/01/2012 5:19 PM, Eskimo Will wrote:
Outputs during the day today would indicate that an easterly setting in
next week is more certain, given the caveats about model handling the
disruption of upper troughs. Key to this in part will be the development
of the Mediterranean vortex. Other ingredients are in place, the recent
stratwarm has slowed the circulation as evidenced by the 150 hPa mean
zonal wind at 60N and warming continuing aloft. Air is cooling quickly
now over Russia. Be careful of drawing too many inferences with 850 hPa
temperature in assessing ensembles as there is likely to be a
significant undercut of cold air like a density current moving
westwards. 'Middle of the road' evolution would be the DT12Z UKMO to
T+144 today 23rd. Note the 1030 hPa low over Denmark at T+120, many runs
have had something similar and that is the final stage of the trough
disruption process. By T+144 next Sunday it should be complete and then
it could potentially get interesting! Key thinking today was that at any
rate high pressure would develop over the UK regardless of any easterly,
but probability for a very cold easterly has increased. The army are
still in their bases though, LOL :-)

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------
yes things looking up. markedly so tonight. seems like my reverse
psychology is working

i wonder if the met update will still be 50/50 tomorrow?

still, keep up the good work. your still the most repected on here and
always a great read, even when things dont come off.

cheers