On 28/01/2012 13:53, Stan wrote:
On 28/01/2012 12:01 PM, Eskimo Will wrote:

"Eskimo Will" wrote in message news:...
Sounds like a state of the union speech :-)

High confidence for cold weather on the way, but it is going to be
absolutely fascinating for us meteorologists.

I'm more or less ruling out a straight easterly with bitterly cold ice
days and air as "dry as a witches wotsit" scenario. What I am going
for is a "battleground UK". There's going to be some very interesting
weather I fancy.


06Z GFS not only has a battle but a World War one trench warfare
scenario!
Fronts coming in from the west running up against the block. Heavy snow
in places, rain in others, but then turning back to snow again, a
forecaster's nightmare. I still fancy some red warnings will be on
offer. Blood and guts, toys out of the pram, severe weather, all the
drama of a British winter :-)

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------
have you read the met short range update today Will?
it almost cancels the cold spell!

The Met Office 6-15 day forecast matches what both the ECMWF and GFS
model operationals showed when I last looked a couple of hours ago - a
pretty decent shot of cold air next weekend with the Atlantic westerlies
returning thereafter. The recent Met Office medium range forecasts have
always hinted at uncertainty over whether the "block" would form or hold
or fail.

Rather more interesting is the 16-30 day "Snowmageddon" forecast which
on the face of it does not seem to "follow" the shorter term forecast at
all, there being no indication in either forecast of a transition back
from the westerly to easterly types - although the word "easterly" is
not in the forecast it is implied by the forecast temperature
distribution and hinted at by the far end GFS output (subject to the
ususal "fantasy land" caveats about that).

As I have no access to the data they use to forecast this far out, I
have no idea where this is coming from - except to say that until it
becomes definite in the later part of the 6-15 day forecast I am not
going to start panic buying at the supermarket just yet. It almost
seems that both these forecasts have been produced by different people
from different data who have not shared their ideas with each other.

A severe cold episode next weekend now seems definitely more likely than
not. The jury's still out on what might follow, but there is still
plenty of winter left to come and, as I often say, my station's (near
Southampton) snow depth record was set in March.

--
- Yokel -

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