On Feb 26, 7:14*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 26, 8:57*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Feb 24, 9:12*am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:

Well, if you want/need rain in the east and south the word is dire.

High pressure looks like dominating for quite a while, as indeed it has all
winter really. The Azores high has never been far off the scene, even when
Mr Russia exerted his influence, Mr Azores was still there complicating
things in the west, preventing a full blow easterly with high pressure
extending to Iceland. Charts show a blocked pattern once again but with the
location of high pressure uncertain. Increasing signal that, as Atlantic
trough disruptions take place next week pressure will build either over us
or to our east. Any easterly is unlikely to be really cold though, probably
almost spring-like but with night frosts. But as I have said if you need
appreciable rain in the forseeable future, forget it, that will be reserved
for the north and west.
Rain dance anyone? I can do snow dances but not rain :-)

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Is this happening? Dry yes, but the blocking does not appear to be
developing. Personally, I never saw an "increasing signal", I saw a
few runs, but there is no time limit on this "assessment" so it'll
probably happen at some time and when it does, the "asessment" will
then have been proven correct.

Did "high pressure dominate all winter"? Really??

I take this one back completely. The ECM and gfs have models have
changed tack during today! See if it sticks.

And now we have a completely different outlook from both operationals.
These changes suggest to me a low probability of any 10-day forecast
achieving outcome. The MEtO 6-15 is a fudge finger and tells us very
little about what is likely to happen. What it doesn't say is perhaps
more of a chocolate digestive (Mmmmmm) - that the UK is unlikely to be
dominated by high pressure (though it will never be far away for the
south. Ensembles are beginning to turn a little cooler, but there's
rain there between the 4-8 March:

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Mar 2012 to Sunday 11 Mar 2012:

Northern and western parts of the United Kingdom are likely to have
generally unsettled weather, with showers and longer periods of rain
at times throughout. Temperatures are likely to be often close to or
just above average with a chance of some slightly colder interludes
later. Southern, eastern and central areas are likely to remain more
settled though, and although there will probably be some rain at
times, a good deal of dry weather is likely leaving conditions drier
than average for the time of year. Temperatures here often mild or
very mild, especially at first, though still a chance of occasional
overnight frost and fog. Strong winds are also likely at times, with a
risk of gales around coasts and hills in the north and northwest of
the UK.

Updated: 1144 on Sun 26 Feb 2012