"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
I've been studying the GFS runs. Today's 06z are just being updated.

Each successive run puts the 528dm line further and further north for
Christmas Day 00z.

I was never filled with optimism about a white Christmas and now I'm
feeling
even less so.

Sorry everyone.

Once again, I do hope I'm wrong

Brendan

Brendan, the general evolution appears consistent to me, i.e. deep cold air
flooding south with the emphasis on convective activity in the north and
west.

I'd keep your eye on these now, as Scandyhigh suggests :-
http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack2a.gif
The troughs shouldn't be taken literally but give some indication of where
to expect areas of organised/enhanced convection.

http://www.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/mete...22/MANBP69.PNG
apply sea temps of at least 10C on the above forecast profile for 21Z on the
24th and we're looking at CB to around 350mb/circa 26000ft, heavy snow/hail
showers (probably a bit sleety over sea and coastal areas) and the odd
thunderstorm for good measure.

Interesting times ahead.

Jon.