In article ,
Brendan DJ Murphy writes:

Its not a case of "Damned if you do, damned if you dont", its a matter of
being accurate.

Too many false-positives is just as bad as false-negatives. We all know
about the famous false-negatives "Don't worry, there isnt going to be a
hurricane". Ever since that famous forecast of 1987, we are continually
getting false-positives.
Its rather dangerous as people will lose faith in the severe weather
wanings.

Well, on this occasion they have said:
"Confidence in a cold spell for Christmas is moderate to high but there
are still doubts in the detail, whilst marked localised variations in
snowfall are likely, with some areas escaping."

Which seems fair enough. The trouble is, of course, that a lot of people
will never read that far. And the media who pick up on the story will
probably omit the caveat.

One of these days, we are going to get a major "true-positive" of a
destructive storm, but people will not be properly prepared because of
their lack of faith in the forecast.

Possibly but, given that advance warnings can never be guaranteed 100%
accurate or 100% precise, the solution isn't obvious.
--
John Hall
"Home is heaven and orgies are vile,
But you *need* an orgy, once in a while."
Ogden Nash (1902-1971)