On Sat, 6 Sep 2003 23:35:24 +0000 (UTC), Andrew Bond in
wrote:

I see you site is *currently* forecasting a mean wind of 32.1 mph for the
City of Derry for 0900 tomorrow - only 9 hours away. I'm amazed at your
resolution to 0.1mph, but have a feeling your error will be of the order
of
15-20 mph. I suppose you might have a .1 in the speed - well a 10% chance
- though no sensible forecaster would use such a resolution.


I'm currently verifying forecasts/actual against last nights GFS for Derry,
snip

It turns out the wind is currently (as of 0950 BST) all of 9mph - so even
my guess of the error was an underestimate.

If the compaint is not upheld then the dataset will return to the original
configuration.... I'll email you when I know the results at 6pm tomorrow.

Please respond via this newsgroup and not by email.

Yet you rubbish the GFS model in the above quoted paragraph - slight
contradiction?

Huh? The GFS is the mutts nutts with regards to emprical forecasts... it got
a day wrong, as Metcheck did... big deal... I was simply offering a balanced
view.

I didn't find your opening reference to contributors to this NG and the MO
exactly "balanced" in MID

I'm no apologist for the MO and I find quite a few aspects of the MO not to
my liking - the commercially driven nature of its working, and sometimes
the media presentation of forecasts, but I am *convinced* the science done
in the background (NWP - the pre-cursor to the forecast, as well as
research on climate change) is second to none.

--
Mike posted to uk.sci.weather 07/09/2003 09:33:07 UTC
Coleraine
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