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Old June 23rd 12, 11:29 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Lawrence13 Lawrence13 is offline
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Default UKMO: Lest We Forget

Or was it Lest We get Wet ?

So much rain for the UK the last three months now's a good time to
review what the United Kingdom Metrological Office, or as named on
their website 'Weather and Climate Change'; actually predicted as late
a 23rd March 2012 for April, May and June this year

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...precip-AMJ.pdf

Here is their own precipitation summary from the linked PDF
__________________________________________________ ___________


SUMMARY - PRECIPITATION:
The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than
average
conditions for AprilMayJune
as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the
driest of the 3 months.
With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern
and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April
May June
period.
The probability that UK precipitation for April May June
will fall into the driest of our five categories is 2025%
whilst the probability that it will fall into
the wettest of our five categories is 1015%
(the 19712000
climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

__________________________________________________ ________

Now there is not one shadow of doubt as Bruce Springsteen struggles to
make through floods to the Isle of Wight rock festival and evacuations
from rising floodwaters as I write are taking place in Northern
England that the forecast for A,M & J by UKMO was an absolute farce,
in fact it's so bad it's almost funny.

Now those odd few recently sectioned poor souls that may even read my
bilge; could fairly ask why am I always attacking UKMO?

Well my answer would be that the preening boastful all style and no
substance organisation that replaced the once matter of fact
conservative and very honest met Office of yesteryear bloody, deserve
it. They(their) hierarchy is a green(red) motivated arrogant tax
funded lorry load of AGW , H&S NHS apologist tripe. One time the met
Office dealt with ...erm...weather and that was it.

Now off they are dealing with dangerous climate change, five day
forecasts for in grown toe nail removals for the NHS and millions of
inane weather warnings which would warm (within recommended H&S
temperature guidelines of course) the endangered (due to AGW )Cockles
off the heart of any overzealous H&S inspector. Is there nothing that
UKMO can't do?

Erm... predict weather three months ahead?

As for the arrogance shown in the way the they have foisted the pigs-
ear of a new website upon the public despite all the complaints,
surely illustrates that pompous 'we know better than you attitude '.
The website immediately knows where you live when you visit it and
the forecast 'drill down' can apparently give the forecast not just
for your post code but down to any particular pavement on your
street. All of which besides giving the impression that the UKMO board
can walk on water-which is handy given their three month drier than
average forecast; but for those people who believe in the UKMO hype
are now suffering due to flooding.

Don't get me wrong weather/climate is a bugger to get right over a
few days and most rationale people know that and would/will forgive
mistakes . But UKMO have over the recent years have increasingly
given the impression that they know everything hence the legendary BBQ
summers and mild winter forecasts.

If they continue to be lead by ideology they will continue to make
these enormous gaffs which they seem to be totally impervious to.

Has anyone from the metOffice apolgised for this disastrous three
monthly forecast that no doubt was issued to Defra, The EA and local
councils as well as the various water authorities ; if so kindly point
me to it.