On 23/06/12 11:29, Lawrence13 wrote:

snip

Don't get me wrong weather/climate is a bugger to get right over a
few days and most rationale people know that and would/will forgive
mistakes .

Doesn't that negate your entire argument above then? It is very
difficult to predict what the weather will do for the next three months,
but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try! If, to the best of our
knowledge, it looks like it is going to be drier than average, then
should we not tell anyone at all, in case we are wrong? Or issue a
forecast with associated probabilities expressing the likelihood of
various events occuring?

But UKMO have over the recent years have increasingly
given the impression that they know everything hence the legendary BBQ
summers and mild winter forecasts.

I think that was probably more the fault of the MO PR department.

If they continue to be lead by ideology they will continue to make
these enormous gaffs which they seem to be totally impervious to.

Has anyone from the metOffice apolgised for this disastrous three
monthly forecast that no doubt was issued to Defra, The EA and local
councils as well as the various water authorities ; if so kindly point
me to it.

But you are making the assumption that once they issued this forecast in
March, they wouldn't in any way alter it. I'm sure if it was given to
Defra etc, then it would subsequently be revised, and not just left
unaltered for three months!

On a serious note, what would you like to see? It is clear that we need
to do some sort of planning for future weather, but as everyone will
admit, the science is not there yet to enable us to predict months in
advance with a great deal of accuracy. Would you prefer no forecasts to
be issued to anyone?

--
Liam (Milton Keynes)
http://physics.open.ac.uk/~lsteele/