In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
Col wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message
. ..
In article
,
Lawrence13 writes:
snip
The probability that UK precipitation for April May June
will fall into the driest of our five categories is 2025%
whilst the probability that it will fall into
the wettest of our five categories is 1015%
(the 19712000
climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).
So the 10-15% chance was the one that came up. Anyone who follows the
gee-gees knows that 7-1 shots sometimes win. Since the MetO were careful
to mention that wet weather was a possibility, and that the forecast
only "slightly favours drier than average conditions", I don't see why
you are giving them so much stick. Everyone knows - or should know -
that three-monthly forecasts have a high degree of uncertainty.
He gives them stick simply because the Met Office 'believes' in
AGW and he doesn't, it's as simple as that.
Any excuse to put the boot in.
-------------------------------------
I do think and have said for some time that the effort various
organisations put into seasonal and long term forecasting is mis-
placed. Well maybe not the research that is going on in the
background but in the publication of them. The original forecast
although probably based on better science had no more validity in
reality than similar efforts by people like Joe *******i and Piers
Corbyn. OK, carry on the research in the background but don't
bother publishing them and concentrate on accurate 7 day
forecasts which are clearly tricky enough.
Dave

I'm a little surprised to see this forecast in a press release. I
thought that a couple of years back the MetOffice had decided that they
were going to stop issuing them to the general public. (Those who knew
where to look on their website could still find them, though clearly
flagged as a research activity.)
--
John Hall
Johnson: "Well, we had a good talk."
Boswell: "Yes, Sir, you tossed and gored several persons."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84); James Boswell (1740-95)