On Jun 25, 9:09*pm, Martin Rowley
wrote:
On 25/06/2012 20:22, Liam Steele wrote:

I've been looking at the forecast for TS Debby over the past few days,
Does anyone know what the problems have been in predicting this track?

I can't recall seeing one turn in the complete opposite direction before

If you look through the various issues of the 'Discussions', you can see
the hair-tearing-out that's going on in Miami ....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012.../175401.shtml?

It looks, to try and answer your question, that the problem lies with
the actual behaviour and model prognoses of various upper air features
(which govern the broader steering flow adjacent to the T/S) which vary
from run-to-run within one model, and equally frustrating, vary between
the various models.

The key to that is the model run disagreements.

You may wsh to compre intervals with the larger events on he

6.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA
5.3 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
5 FIJI REGION
5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
5.9 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.1 SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
6 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION

Not included but just as important, are the consecutive smaller quakes
at the same epicentres whose incidence connotes or denote (whatever
the term has not been coined yet) marked changes in storm values
downwards.

HTH,BFLIWMFTWTLOY.