"Col" wrote in message
...
Lawrence13 wrote:
On Saturday, 11 August 2012 21:47:49 UTC+1, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Saturday, 11 August 2012 20:36:48 UTC+1, David Brown wrote:

"There is no clear signal for any particular weather type to
dominate through this period"........... for the last four weeks
this has been the mantra. What will it take to alter this phrase?
Are we really to believe that one of the world's foremost
meteorological organisations lacks the knowledge, or the
confidence, to make an informed prediction more than two weeks into
the future? This is fence-sitting on an industrial scale; what do
those of us who live in the UK pay our taxes for?



You pay your taxes so as not to be reliant on the likes of
Piers Corbyn and his bold, confident rubbish.



Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Strange one though Tudor, as Peirs is going fo the jet stream to take
a Med Club holiday after the 19th August putting the UK in a slack
northerly to NE. As for UKMO not knowing: well at least I respect and
appreciate that honesty. It's far better than trying to give answers
that aren't known.

Agreed.
If you don't know, then say so. If the odds of it being wet in two weeks'
time are 50:50 then don't commit to anything, it's just guesswork.
This may lead to claims of 'They don't know what they're bloody doing'
but better in the long run to take this cautious approach than nailing
your
colours to the mast and end up being spectacularly wrong.


If it really was 50-50 then the MetO would say something more definite as
50-50 does not mean "I don't know" but there is a 50% chance of a situation
happening which is useful information. I suspect that the ECMWF ensemble
products are giving lots of possible Lamb types as possibilities therefore
there is no useful signal. I.e. 10 lots of 10% is worth nothing.

Will
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