On Friday, September 7, 2012 12:42:34 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:

Adam Scaife UKMO talked about how it could produce wetter summers and

colder easterly winters.

Presumably he was referring to England and Wales here? A bit of

southern UK bias as usual.

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I'm not sure why you would presume that. Adam Scaife's findings encompass the greater part of Europe, as they would if we're talking about colder E'ly or NE'ly types in winter.

A prediction of wetter summers would be because his findings support the idea of an average storm track closer to 40 deg N than 50 deg N - again manifesting over a larger area than than just England and Wales.

What's interesting is that he and the UKMO are working with an extended model with vertical extent up to 85km rather than the 45km up until now. This importantly takes in the stratosphere. A re-forecast of winter 2009-10 gives a much better result with the extended model.

Stephen.