On Sep 7, 2:26*pm, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Friday, September 7, 2012 12:42:34 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:

Adam Scaife UKMO talked about how it could produce wetter summers and

colder easterly winters.

Presumably he was referring to England and Wales here? A bit of

southern UK bias as usual.

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I'm not sure why you would presume that. Adam Scaife's findings encompass the greater part of Europe, as they would if we're talking about colder E'ly or NE'ly types in winter.

A prediction of wetter summers would be because his findings support the idea of an average storm track closer to 40 deg N than 50 deg N - again manifesting over a larger area than than just England and Wales.

What's interesting is that he and the UKMO are working with an extended model with vertical extent up to 85km rather than the 45km up until now. This importantly takes in the stratosphere. A re-forecast of winter 2009-10 gives a much better result with the extended model.

Stephen.
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My point was that the much wetter than average summer just past was
not true for the whole of the UK.
Adam Scaife referred to the UK (north of 50) deg and spoke as follows:
'....for example, some studies suggest there is an increase risk of
wet low pressure summers over the UK as the ice melts, and the studies
suggest that the weather could become more easterly cold and snowy due
to the Arctic ice decline.

So he was referring to the UK here.

Good to see the UKMO is going to higher altitudes with its model.
The bulk of the stratosphere had already been include as it is about
12 to 50 km.
50 to 80 km is the mesosphere, clearly things like noctilucent clouds
can be considered here but their formation is still a bit of a
mystery.

Len
Wembury