"Dartmoor Will" wrote in message news:...
I expect a yellow warning will be issued tomorrow for torrential rain.


Auto forecast (global ukmo model) today (thurs) is going for it, eg,
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...st/haytor-vale

I'd be surprised if a yellow heads up were not issued today.

Ex Nadine will be influencing developments in Biscay this weekend. Couple
that with a trough extending SE from Iceland, the ingredients are there
for an interesting cyclogenesis in the SW of England. Warm moist tropical
air will be entrained with some mid-level instability leading to
torrential downpours and possibly localised strong winds, although I think
the main emphasis will be on the rain during Sunday and Monday.

Models are oscillating at present and any low may yet stay to the south of
the UK but with an upper trough extending from the NW I think the writing
is on the wall for some severe weather!

Latest FAX output from Exeter is threatening.

Note 06Z GFS even brings ex Nadine herself into the UK on Tuesday, not
sure about that, but if it happens it could be very nasty.


Backtracked as expected, but a close call still, if Nadine gets on forward
side of longwave upper trough it could still happen on Tuesday. Another
scenario is that we may get an elongated cold front with waves running up it
into UK, potential for very high rainfall totals in that one too.
Have to write my weekly forecast soon, I think the emphasis next week will
be on WET :-)

OK off out now to enjoy the sunshine while I can LOL.

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
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