Dartmoor Will wrote:

"ron button" wrote in message
...

"Dartmoor Will" wrote in message
...

"Dartmoor Will" wrote in message news:...
I expect a yellow warning will be issued tomorrow for torrential rain.


Auto forecast (global ukmo model) today (thurs) is going for it, eg,
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...st/haytor-vale

I'd be surprised if a yellow heads up were not issued today.

Ex Nadine will be influencing developments in Biscay this weekend.
Couple that with a trough extending SE from Iceland, the ingredients
are there for an interesting cyclogenesis in the SW of England. Warm
moist tropical air will be entrained with some mid-level instability
leading to torrential downpours and possibly localised strong winds,
although I think the main emphasis will be on the rain during Sunday
and Monday.

Models are oscillating at present and any low may yet stay to the
south of the UK but with an upper trough extending from the NW I
think the writing is on the wall for some severe weather!

Latest FAX output from Exeter is threatening.

Note 06Z GFS even brings ex Nadine herself into the UK on Tuesday,
not sure about that, but if it happens it could be very nasty.


Backtracked as expected, but a close call still, if Nadine gets on
forward side of longwave upper trough it could still happen on
Tuesday. Another scenario is that we may get an elongated cold front
with waves running up it into UK, potential for very high rainfall
totals in that one too.
Have to write my weekly forecast soon, I think the emphasis next week
will be on WET :-)

OK off out now to enjoy the sunshine while I can LOL.

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

Since August 5th we here in sunny Woodford Green have had barely 20mm
of rain,and it's becoming very dry indeed,so a good soaking on Sunday
or Monday or Tuesday would be very welcome ,as Will would say ,bring
it on !


GFS 06Z is looking peachy!

Will
---------------------------
Ron beat me to it. Just 10mm here in the last month and as is the way in
these parts ground starting to crack and grass yellowing.
Dave, S.Essex